🔗 Share this article

Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.